SUPERMAN ROCKETING INTO HOUSTON IS NO GUARANTEE OF SUCCESS

I read with amusement all the articles and talk about the Houston Rockets being favored to win the NBA’s Western conference, now that Dwight Howard is there, or will be soon if you believe his twitter feed.

NBA titles are not won in July.  Sometimes, it only seems that they are.  This is one of those times.

The overreaction of Howard deciding to take his talents to Houston has been swift and decisive.  It seems that everyone–fans, experts, even Barack Obama (who loves to weigh in on every sports topic like a wannabe sports talk show host) think the Rockets are now the favorites out west.

I don’t see it that way, at least yet.

The Rockets are a nice team, don’t get me wrong.  They have a nice blend of size, perimeter shpoters and of course James Harden, who has become one the NBA’s best in his first opportunity to be a team’s franchise player.  I just don’t see “automatic title” when I look at their roster.

They are trying to improve it though, so by the time all is said and done, who knows.  As of now though, Howard’s arrival makes them a competitor for the Western conference crown, but by no means, the favorite.

There are a number of reasons I say that.  First of all, there is recent history.  Look at last year, when the Lakers acquired Howard and Steve Nash to team up with Kobe.  Fans, experts and Obama all said the Lakers couldn’t lose.  The L.A. city council had an emergency meeting to plan the victory parade route.  Kobe Bryant was seen in jewelry shops getting his pinkie finger measured.  “How could anyone beat the Lakers in the conference?”, everyone said.

Well, we all know how that worked out now, don’t we?  Injuries and chemistry issues led to a disappointing season in tinseltown, and the Lakers were one-and-done in the playoffs.  There weren’t enough balls to go around, and Howard couldn’t integrate himself into the offensive scheme.

In Houston, you have a similar situation.  Harden is a Kobe-clone.  He has never met a shot he didn’t like, likes to dribble-drive and Howard may just get in his way.  Jeremy Lin is a similar player to Steve Nash.  A poor man’s, younger version of Nash.  Chandler Parsons=Metta World Peace, and so on.  The supporting casts are interchangeable.  Now, the Rockets play a different offense than the Lakers, being more isolation oriented than the Lakers triangle, but I still see potential problems with chemistry.

Secondly, Howard can’t make free throws.  After shooting a still pretty gnarley 59.2 percent over his first seven years in the league, he has gotten worse the last two years–49.1 and 49.2 the last two years.  When yor best player goes to the line A LOT and has a 50-50 chance of making them, it is not good for your team, eespecially at crunch time.  You can’t afford to pull your best rebounder and interior defender off the floor in the closing minutes and expect to be a great team!

Bottom line is Dwight Howard is not a guy you want on your team if you want to win it all.  He couldn’t do it in Orlando, where he was the main big man in a system of perimeter shooters.  He couldn’t do it in L.A. in a triangle based system with two other great players.  I don’t think he is going to do it in Houston in an isolation/motion system either.  I heard a rumor that Howard could be going to my Bulls for Joaguim Noah in  a”sign and trade”.  I wouldn’t want him.  I think Noah brings more to the table.  As for Houston though, it is early in free agency, and more moves can be made though.

With Howard in Houston, Omar Asik suddenly becomes expendable.  The Rockets and Pelicans are reportedly discussing an Osik for Ryan Anderson swap.  Anderson is a true stretch four, who averaged 16.2 ppg and 6.4 rpg last year, and would fit in well.  The Rockets had also discussed a sign and trade deal to bring Josh Smith from the ATL, but Yahoo sports reports that Smith is on his way to Detroit for a new four year deal.  

If Smith didn’t work out and the Anderson deal falls through as well, there is also Paul Millsap from Utah on the market.  If not Millsap, a cheaper alternative could be Carl Landry or J.J. Hickson.  Still, none of them say “automatic title” to me.  I still think Oklahoma City, with Durant and Westbrook, are a stronger combination, especially if they can bring in or develop a third scoring option.

Any way you slice the Howard thing though, even if it might not make champions out of the Rockets, it sure is a heckuva punch to the gut of the Lakers.